Battery prices fell by more than 99% since 1991 - what it means for EV fleets

Lithium-ion batteries have become more than 99% cheaper in a single lifetime. In 1991, a battery cell cost around $9,200 per kWh. By 2024, that figure had dropped to roughly $78 per kWh. This is not a projection or an optimistic scenario - it is history that has already happened. And it changes everything for fleet electrification.

What does an EV battery actually cost today?

A standard EV battery today - around 63 kWh, enough for roughly 350-400 km of range - costs about $5,000 at cell level or $6,000-7,000 at pack level. That is less than many people pay for their first used car.

A decade ago, the same battery cost more than $20,000. And back in 1991 - hold your breath - around $580,000. More than the price of a house in most cities.

Wright's Law - why batteries keep getting cheaper

This is not a coincidence or a one-off leap. Batteries follow Wright's Law (also known as experience curves or learning curves): every time cumulative global production doubles, the cost falls by around 19%.

Since 1991, cumulative lithium-ion battery production has increased by a factor of roughly 27 million. Imagine: if production started at 1 unit, it now stands at 27,000,000. Each doubling brings another 19% price reduction. The math works relentlessly - in buyers' favour.

Importantly, the trend is not over. Global battery production continues to grow rapidly, driven by transport electrification and grid-scale energy storage. Analysts at BloombergNEF project further price falls - though the pace may moderate somewhat as the market matures.

Alongside falling costs, energy density has also improved dramatically: from around 200 Wh/L in 1991 to more than 700 Wh/L today. Batteries are not just cheaper - they are also more than three times more energy-dense for the same volume. In practice: a modern EV offers greater range and a lighter pack than its counterpart from ten years ago.

What does this mean for fleets?

For years, the central barrier to fleet electrification was a simple question: "Can we even afford it?" For a fleet of 50 vans, the TCO difference between EVs and combustion vehicles could run to hundreds of thousands. Today that gap has narrowed dramatically - and in many cases the EV is already cheaper on a total cost of ownership basis.

But falling battery prices shift the conversation to the next level. The question is becoming less and less whether fleets can afford EVs at all. The harder question is: "How do we charge growing battery capacity intelligently, reliably, and at the lowest possible cost within real site constraints?"

• Grid connection management - with a large fleet you cannot charge all vehicles simultaneously during peak tariff hours.
• Demand forecasting - which vehicle is needed when? How much charge must each vehicle have by morning?
• Tariff integration - off-peak vs peak charging can differ by 30-50% in energy cost per kWh.
• Smart charging and V2G - growing pack sizes can discharge energy back to the grid or building during peak hours.
• Per-vehicle TCO analysis - fleet averages are not enough; each model has its own degradation profile and operating cost structure.

Cheaper batteries made electrification possible. Now intelligent charging management, forecasting, and energy integration determine whether electrification actually pays off at operational scale.

On CzymPojade.pl you can analyse the TCO of an entire fleet of up to 50 vehicles - comparing BEV, HEV, ICE, and LPG under real Polish market conditions: live fuel prices, energy tariffs, regional service costs, and current insurance rates.